Tyson's ECOWAS Occasional Journal - Politics in West Africa

Ghana's democracy is robust compared to some other ECOWAS countries, including Gambia. On the same day Ghana's president Mahama accepted defeat, the first sitting president to lose an election in Ghana, the president of Gambia decided he didn't want to accept his electoral defeat after all. Ghana has had peaceful multiparty elections for 25 years, and Decembers's election marks the third democratic alternation of power between parties, but in other ways Ghana's democracy shows weaknesses, as described in a recent Monkey Cage post from Nic Cheeseman, Gabrielle Lynch and Justin Willis. The whole thing is worth reading but here are some highlights: During the campaign, a widely shared video showed Mahama allegedly “buying votes” — handing out money to women at a market. 71 percent of respondents in that survey said they prefer democracy to any other form of government — ... But the results suggest that despite Ghana’s impressive experience of open and competit...

... especially when you're counting ballots in a country where the president doesn't want to lose. From Reuters : The head of Gambia's electoral commission has fled to Senegal due to threats to his safety after declaring that President Yahya Jammeh lost last month's election, a defeat the ruler has refused to accept.

From Reuters last week: A man purporting to be the leader of Nigerian Islamist militant group Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau, denied the jihadist group has been pushed out of its stronghold in the Sambisa forest, but the army said the base had been captured. President Muhammadu Buhari on Saturday said Boko Haram's last enclave in the forest, a former game reserve in northeastern Nigeria, had been captured in the "final crushing" of the group. Reuters has been unable to independently verify that the area was captured. "We are safe. We have not been flushed out of anywhere," the man identifying himself as Shekau said in a video ... "If you indeed crushed us, how can you see me like this? How many times have you killed us in your bogus death?" ... Nigeria's military has in recent years said it has killed or wounded Shekau on multiple occasions.  Such statements have often swiftly been followed by video denials by someone who says he is Shekau...

From Reuters : Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh accused West African regional body ECOWAS of declaring war, after it said it was putting forces on alert in case he refused to step down at the end of his mandate this month. ...  

2016 was a big year for elections in ECOWAS countries: Benin , Cape Verde,  Gambia , Ghana , and  Niger had presidential elections. Only in Cape Verde and Niger did an incumbent win (unless you believe Jammeh in Gambia that he should have won as well).  Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria had parliamentary elections. Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal both had constitutional referenda.  Nigeria had gubernatorial and local elections, and Niger had local elections.  2017 has fewer elections planned for ECOWAS countries: Liberia has a presidential election in October and a constitutional referendum planned.  Gambia has a parliamentary election in April (and a disputed presidential inauguration in January) Senegal and Sierra Leone have general elections.  Guinea and Niger have local elections. 

The last time I wrote about Guinea-Bissau ( in September 2015 ), they were on their third prime minister in one month (Pereira was dismissed by President Vaz, then Dja was rejected by the Parliament, then Correia was appointed). All of these characters were members of the same party, the PAIGC, which controls the presidency and the Parliament, but there is conflict between the two branches of government. Since September 2015, the country has had two more prime ministers . In May 2016, Vaz ejected Correia and tried to bring back Dja, but he was rejected again by Parliament.  ECOWAS intervened to help - the Liberian president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, held negotiations with the three main parties in Guinea-Bissau. Following the negotiations, in October Vaz dismissed Dja (which was what the PAIGC in Parliament wanted) and in November appointed Umaro Sissoco (which was not what they wanted). The PAIGC and one of the main opposition parties, União para a Mudança (UM), said that another...

Yahya Jammeh, who took control of Gambia in a military coup in 1994, continues to reject the outcome of the election he lost on December 1. Presidents from four other ECOWAS countries - Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone - visited Gambia to convince Jammeh to accept the election results, but to no effect (as of yet). Military action is an option but there are no clear plans from ECOWAS on that front. Jammeh at first (surprisingly) accept the election results, but then he changed his mind. One reason he may have decided to stay is " foolhardy pledges of some of the opposition to arrest him for his many abuses of human rights." Military dictators often negotiate a transition to democracy in exchange for amnesty for any human rights abuses during their rule. Jammeh didn't try to negotiate his exit - he tried to win a fifth presidential election (which is why scholars such as Geddes characterize rulers like Jammeh as a personalist leader). Nonetheless, the opposi...