Tyson's ECOWAS Occasional Journal - Politics in West Africa

After one prime minister was dismissed the president and another resigned in response to an outcry from parliament, elder statesman Carlos Correia (pictured above) became Prime Minister (all 3 PMs were from the ruling party, the PAIGC). To reduce the instability and potential of internal rebellion, Correia tried to bring the second largest party, the Party of Social Renewal (PRS), into the cabinet. Talks broke down over how many ministries the PRS would receive. The PAIGC has enough seats to approve the cabinet without the PRS (in the 2014 election , PAIGC won 57 of 102 seats with 48% of the vote), but Correia was hoping for a "national unity government" with the PRS, which holds 41 seats.

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari addresses attendees during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York, September 28, 2015. REUTERS/EDUARDO MUNOZ In July, President Buhari said he would wait until September to appoint cabinet ministers, so that new rules of conduct and good governance could be put into place. Today is the last day of September, and Buhari submitted the names of his nominees today to the senate for approval. From a quick Google search, I'm not sure what the new rules of conduct and good governance are, and whether they've been put into place, except for this: "a directive that all federal revenue-generating institutions, including the opaque state oil company, begin paying their revenues into a single Treasury account instead of a web of largely untracked private bank accounts." The oil industry is probably the main source of corruption in Nigeria, so his reforms in that sector a...

Supporters of President Alassane Ouattara when he arrived in Daloa, Ivory Coast, September 27, 2015. AFP PHOTO / ISSOUF SANOGO Reuters reports that some of Cote d'Ivoire's opposition is still complaining that the Elecotral Commission is biased in favor of the government (President Ouattara is running for his first re-election). Estimates of attendance at an opposition rally today range from 300-700, including 5 of the 10 presidential candidates . The same article mentions that protestors question Ouattara's nationality. Unlike America birthers , these protestors don't necessarily question whether Ouattara was born in Cote d'Ivoire - his Ivoirité is questioned based on the birthplace of his parents. In 1994, an Electoral Code was adopted that required not only the presidential candidate to be born in Cote d'Ivoire, but also BOTH of his or her PARENTS. I'm not sure if it's known where Ouattara was born - he himself was reportedly born in 1942 near ...

Presidential guard soldiers are seen on the grounds of the Laico Hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Sept. 20, 2015 VOA reports that the Presidential Guard (RSP) that launched a coup 12 days ago and then stepped down last week in response to pressure from the people, the regular army, and the international community is now refusing to disarm. This is not terribly surprising that the RSP does not want to disarm. It stepped down in exchange for the safety of its members and their families. Protestors are calling for leaders of the coup to be executed. One reason military governments are willing to negotiate their exit, as the RSP did, is because they can enforce conditions such as amnesty for the coup because the military holds weapons. Geddes notes that "Militaries can enforce compliance with amnesties and other deals, but only if they can make credible threats to respond with violence if the new government reneges." If the RSP disarms, it will be relying on the w...

Between holidays and classes starting I haven't had a chance to blog since Tuesday, and a lot has happened in Burkina Faso since then. The coup against the interim government happened on Wednesday, September 16, as the country prepared for elections in October. The day after the coup, my prediction was that "It is unlikely that the military will remain in power for long. ... There will likely be a transition to civilian rule in the not-too-distant future, and elections. The CDP will not likely be excluded from those elections. In fact, parties who attempted to ban the CDP may be banned themselves .... Perhaps the best we can hope for is that the military will negotiate some prerogatives and protections for itself (such as military control over the military budget and amnesty for the events of 1987 and this latest coup) ..." So I was right about the coup not lasting long and the return of elections, but I didn't appreciate at the time the lack of support the presi...

Landry Signé provides his insightful analysis on the Burkina Faso coup in this morning's Monkey Cage  (I added a link to one of my posts that he must have forgot☺): Even if observers in the international community were surprised by what some have called a “ disaster for Africa ,” this unconstitutional seizure of power was predictable , and if it didn’t happen before the elections, it could have happened after the elections. My research suggests this “disaster” is a result of weak horizontal accountability during the transition. Simply put , horizontal accountability is the ability of government institutions to check abuses by other branches of government and a system in which government institutions are independent and no agency or branch becomes too powerful compared to the others. Some may refer to this system as one with “checks and balances.” ... Even before the coup attempt by the presidential guard, the legitimacy and impartiality of the transition was a concern fo...

Source: AFP In my first post on last week's military coup in Burkina Faso, I predicted that "It is unlikely that the military will remain in power for long." However, I'll be the first to admit I had no idea the coup would end the way it seems to be ending. Quick background: President Compaore's 27-year rule ended on Halloween last year in response to street protests when he and his ruling party, the CDP, tried to remove the term-limits so Compaore could run for another term as president. An interim government planned for elections in October 2015, but a new electoral code banned the CDP and its allies from running. The CDP appealed to the ECOWAS Court, and that Court said the ban violated the former ruling party's human rights, but the Burkina Faso Constitutional Court ignored that ruling and enforced the electoral code, banning the CDP. Meanwhile, a commission of the interim government recommended disbanding Compaore's elite presidential gua...

The Economist has a good summary: IN A small African country, soldiers seize the president they are meant to be protecting and dissolve the government. More take control of the TV and radio stations. A burly man in a military uniform issues a statement on TV and radio to explain that for the sake of democracy and the state of the nation, the army has intervened to stop the despotic, immoral government. International outrage follows, as do protests at home. A curfew is imposed; the airport shut down; people shot in the streets. Few are quite sure what is happening. It is clichéd stuff. But it keeps happening, ... On September 17th the drama unfolded in Burkina Faso, a landlocked country of 17m in West Africa. Michel Kafando, the interim president since last October, and several other members of his government, were arrested by the presidential guard. A spokesman, complete with awkward uniform, appeared on television to announce that the “National Council for Democracy” has decid...

From Reuters  last Saturday: West Africa's ECOWAS regional bloc on Saturday extended a security force in Guinea-Bissau into 2016 to help protect state institutions amid a political crisis that has left the country without a government. Senegal President Macky Sall, who heads the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS), called the extraordinary summit to discuss a political crisis in coup-prone Guinea-Bissau sparked when President Jose Mario Vaz dismissed the prime minister a month ago. He later replaced him with a new premier but a Supreme Court ruling this week deemed the new appointment unconstitutional and cabinet was dissolved. "Given the fragility of the political situation in the country, the conference decided to extend the mandate of ECOMIB for six months from January to June 2016," ECOWAS said in a statement, referring to its 600-strong force. Mediation efforts by the bloc will continue, it added. The former Portuguese colony has suffered ...

Niger soldiers provide security for an anti-Boko Haram summit in Diffa city, Niger September 3, 2015. REUTERS/WARREN STROBEL Excerpts from Reuters article : The Diffa meeting was a modest success not just for its mutually suspicious tribes but for a small team of fewer than 20 U.S. Special Operations Forces conducting an experiment that is part of President Barack Obama's new counter-terrorism strategy. The soldiers, who encouraged the meeting and helped provide a ring of security, do not go into combat, or even wear uniforms. They are quietly trying to help Niger build a wall against Boko Haram's incursions and its recruitment of Diffa's youth. A Reuters reporter was the first to visit the detachment, which is among about 1,000 U.S. Special Operations Forces deployed across Africa. In Chad, Nigeria, Niger and elsewhere, they are executing Obama's relatively low-risk strategy of countering Islamic extremists by finding local partners willing to fight rat...

Eight candidates  will be on the ballot in Guinea's presidential election on October 11 (7 men and one woman). This is a sharp reduction from the 24 candidates in 2010. Five of the eight, including incumbent Alpha Condé (RPG), contested the 2010 election. Alpha Condé (not to be confused with former president Lansana Conté ), in his first bid for re-election, is the front-runner. His main opposition is Cellou Dalein Diallo , candidate for the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) party and former prime minister (2004-2006, under former president   Conté ). Diallo came in second place in the 2010 presidential election , with 47% of the vote in the runoff. That election has been described as " controversial ." Another major opposition candidate is Sidya Toure, candidate for Union of Republican Forces (UFR), also a former prime minister (1996-1999, under former president  Conté ). Toure came in 3rd in the 2010 election, with 13% of the vote. ...

(UPDATE: To be clear, I'm not claiming that I predicted with certainty this coup would happen, but I and others noted recently that the interim government was making decisions that increased the risk of a coup.) In July , I noted some similarities between Burkina Faso and Egypt - an uprising against a president who had been in power since the 1980s, followed by talk of putting the former president on trial for treason. Now, another similarity has emerged; just as Egypt's transition to democratic rule was interrupted by a military coup, yesterday there was a military coup against the interim government, which was preparing for elections next month. The coup d'etat should not be a surprise. In their preparations for next month's election, Burkina Faso was excluding the party of former president Compaore and his allies from participating in the election. Political elites don't like to be excluded from elections, and often respond violently. As I wrote in August...

Formation | Create infographics Jeune Afrique has some charts summarizing characteristics of the 10 candidates for president of Cote d'Ivoire (23 of the 33 candidates were invalidated by the Constitutional Court).  8 of 10 are men. 3 of the 10 are in their 70s (including incumbent Ouattara). 7 are Christian and 3 (including Ouattara) are Muslim. Most are from the southern half of the country (not surprising, since most of the population is in the south; "Northerner" Ouattara was born near Yamoussoukro). 4 are members of a political party, 3 are independents, and 3 were members of a political party but left (the PDCI supported Ouattara, leading some members to run independently).  Almost half (4 of 10) have degrees in Economics, including Ouattara and Charles Konan Banny (former Prime Minister and PDCI member). In addition to Charles Konan Banny, Essy Amara and Kouadio Konan Bertin are former PDCI members. Pascal Affi N’Guessan is the candidate of t...

Reuters : Appeals judges at the International Criminal Court on Tuesday rejected a request for the temporary release of former Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo weeks before the start of his trial. Gbagbo, 70, is accused of plunging his country into civil war rather than relinquishing power after losing a presidential run-off election in 2010. His trial is due to begin Nov. 10. ... In June, judges confirmed four counts of crimes against humanity against Gbagbo for post-election violence in which around 3,000 people were killed. Read background to Cote d'Ivoire's election  here .

Last month, Guinea Bissau President Jose Mario Vaz dismissed his prime minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, to resolve what was described as a "deepening power struggle." Vaz said his fallout with Pereira stemmed partly from the appointment of a new armed forces chief, a key post in the small nation known as a hub in drug trafficking between South America and Europe. Vaz and Pereira are both members of the ruling party, the PAIGC. When the "unified executive" emerged last year, it was predicted that the political decision process was "likely to run smoothly," but that apparently wasn't the case. President Vaz appointed Baciro Dja to replace Pereira, and Dja was sworn in, but this was against the will of the PAIGC, who renominated the party leader Pereira. A PAIGC party official said the PAIGC "will never accept a constitutional coup d'etat. Neither the party nor the people of Guinea-Bissau will accept the nomination of Baciro Dja....

A man holds a framed portrait of Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari outside the venue of Buhari's inauguration in Abuja May 29, 2015. REUTERS/AKINTUNDE AKINLEYE Nigeria President Buhari won the election against Goodluck Jonathan in large part because of corruption and security concerns. In the 100 days since he took office, Buhari has been focused on fighting Boko Haram (including new leadership for the military) and corruption (including cleaning house in the state oil company). One of his anti-corruption moves was to delay appointing a cabinet until corruption reforms have been put in place. But as this Reuters piece points out, having no cabinet carries costs. Nigeria has not developed a policy response to its economic challenges, including low oil revenues from the oil price crash.

From The Economist : HOW many times can one man die? At least four, in the case of Abubakar Shekau, the slippery leader of Boko Haram. Nigerian security forces celebrated his demise in 2009, 2013 and 2014, only for him to pop up again, disconcertingly animate, on camera. When Chad’s president said in August that his troops had killed Mr Shekau, the jihadist was resurrected once again, this time with a voice recording. “Woe unto liars that had claimed I am dead,” said the voice. “Nobody can kill me.”

Léonce Koné, président du directoire du CDP, ex-parti au pouvoir http://news.aouaga.com/c/6019.html From the African Elections Project blog: OUAGADOUGOU, Burkina Faso (AP) — A court in Burkina Faso on Saturday rejected the chosen presidential candidate of the former ruling party, prompting threats of a boycott of the vote in October. The presidential and legislative elections scheduled for Oct. 11 are intended to end one year of transitional rule imposed after longtime President Blaise Compaore was ousted in a popular uprising triggered by his attempt to alter rules that would have prevented him from seeking a third term. The candidate list published Saturday included 16 of the 22 proposed candidates. The list is still provisional and appeals can be filed until Sept. 6. Most of the rejected candidates were disqualified for failing to pay the necessary fees.  But Eddie Comboigo, the chosen candidate of Compaore's Congress for Democracy and Progress, was barred under a ...

Former Ivory Coast prime minister Pascal Affi N'Guessan, leader of Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo's party, speaks during an interview with Reuters at his residence in Abidjan August 14, 2015. REUTERS/LUC GNAGO Reuters wrote about Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election again today.   As expected , President Ouattara's main opposition candidate is Pascal Affi N'Guessan of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI), the party of Laurent Gbagbo, which didn't hold an election in 2005 because of the civil war over disenfranchising the north by banning candidates such as Ouattara. In 2010 when the election was finally held, most agree that the FPI attempted to steal the election won by Ouattara (more on that below). Since Ouattara took the presidency in 2011 (after a second civil war caused by Gbagbo and the FPI refusing to recognize Ouattara's electoral victory), the FPI has been boycot ting elections, which has only resul...

A general view of the investiture ceremony of Ivory Coast's President Alassane Ouattara as the presidential candidate of the Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) ruling coalition at Felix Houphouet-Boigny Stadium in Abidjan April 25, 2015. REUTERS/LUC GNAGO Former Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny, who says he was a friend to President Ouattara for over 30 years, isn't feeling so friendly anymore. Banny is not happy that the former ruling party (PDCI) is joining with the president's party (RDR) to support Ouattara's re-election. Banny is joining with other opposition members (including PDCI dissidents and FPI hardliners ) in the National Coalition for Change (CNC) to complain about the insecurity and the electoral commission. The CNC says that insecurity in some parts of Cote d'Ivoire will hampber voting in the October elections, and that the electoral commission's voting registry is biased in favor of the government. The CNC thre...