Massive protests in Togo - what happened, and what's next?

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Protestors have been active all year. The opposition says that over a million people in the 7-million population country have participated in anti-government protests. That's probably an exaggeration, but they likely number over 100,000, which is a big number for a small country.

To set the stage - thousands protested in 2014 against President Faure Gnassingbé seeking a 3rd term, and when the president won re-election in 2015, the opposition disputed the results. 

Here is some of what happened in 2017 - I might be missing some important events:
  • In February, hundreds protested against the government shutting down two independent broadcasters. 
  • In late February/early March, civil society groups, unions, teachers, taxi drivers, etc. protested and went on strike over increased gas prices and delays of compensations payments to victims of government violence from 1958-2005. One person was killed by the police breaking up the protests.
  • By July, protestors numbered over 100,000 in the capital, Lomé. The opposition presidential candidate from the 2015 election, Jean-Pierre Fabre, marched at the front of the protestors and spoke. Demands included undoing the 2002 amendments to the 1992 Constitution that were put in place to enable Faure's father to run for and win a third term, and to enable Faure to run. The opposition wants restoration of the two-term limit on the president, and the two-round presidential election (some believe the single-round system was put in place to block opposition parties from unifying around a single candidate; another amendment in 2002 lowered the eligibility age to enable Faure to run). The government shut down the internet to undermine protestor organizing. Smaller protests (e.g., 100 in Bafilo) also occurred in the north (which is where Faure usually has more support). 
  • In August, police repression of the protests turned violent, with tear gas and sometimes live bullets fired, to disrupt the protests, resulting in some (2-7) deaths of protestors. Large protests were held in major cities in both the north and south - Lomé, Sokode, Lara, and Anie. The Sokode protests were led by Tikpi Atchadam, leader of an opposition party based in the North. 
  • Protests continued throughout the country in September. The legislature, dominated by the ruling party, held a vote to introduce a two-term limit. However, the limit wouldn't be retroactive, meaning Faure, currently in his 3rd term, could run for 2 more terms. The opposition therefore boycotted, thus defeating the amendment. The country's bishops through their support behind the opposition. 
  • In October, the government banned weekday protests, which the opposition ignored. More protestors were killed by police attempting to disperse protests. Members of the opposition increasingly called for Faure to step down. The government is organizing a referendum on the constitutional amendment that failed in the legislature. 
What next?

Joel Amegboh and Alex Noyes have a nice assessment about what is likely to happen next. I agree that a coup is unlikely, the military is likely to stay united behind Faure, and if a referendum is held, it's likely to pass, especially if the opposition boycott. Possibly in 2020, or possibly in 2028 after Faure serves two more terms, I think his party, the UNIR, may find another candidate to take over the presidency. The UNIR is very unpopular among much of the country but they do have their supporters and they very much enjoy staying in power and are savvy in figuring out when to give a little and when to re-consolidate power. But I'd love to be wrong and see Togo follow in the footsteps of Benin or, more recently, Gambia. 


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