Another coup in Mali

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 Mali had its fourth successful coup last week. Previous coups occurred in 1968, 1991, and 2012. 

Last week's coup was against President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK). The country's first coup, in 1968, was also against a Keita - Modibo Keita (not to be confused with Modibo Keita, no relation, who was prime minister under IBK from 2015-2017). The 1968 coup was led by Moussa Traoré, who held onto power until the 1991 coup, after which the country held democratic elections won by Alpha Oumar Konaré, who was re-elected in 1997 and then succeeded by Amadou Toumani Touré, who was re-elected in 2007 and then overthrown in the 2012 coup. 

So Mali had a nice stretch of democracy between coups number 2 and 3. The 2012 coup was initiated in part by the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya, in part by NATO airstrikes by France, the US, and Britain. Malian Tuaregs who had been working for Gaddafi returned home and helped launch a Tuareg Rebellion that conquered much of the country. Malian military officers who were dissatisfied with the government's handling of the crisis overthrew President Touré. The new military government had no more success putting down the Tuareg rebellion, which wasn't suppressed until intervention from France. 

Soon after the 2012 coup, ECOWAS imposed sanctions and quickly convinced the coup leaders to allow for elections, which were won in 2013 by IBK. IBK won re-election in 2018. 

Last week's coup can be explained in part by the conditions that existed in 2012 - Mali remains relatively poor, and despite heavy expenditure on the military has difficulty imposing order over its vast territory. As in 2012, the 2020 coup began as a mutiny by officers based in Kati Camp (9 miles from the capital Bamako) that began as protest against the president and evolved into an overthrow of the government. 

The response by ECOWAS is the same - imposition of sanctions and the demand for democratic elections. Holding elections again will be the easy part - the challenge will be for the next government to effectively lead the country, including order and economic opportunity while restraining corruption. 

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