Token opposition candidates in upcoming Benin presidential election

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In the 2019 legislative elections in Benin, a new electoral code and some decisions in the politicized bureaucracy and judiciary resulted in all opposition parties (and some pro-government parties) being disqualified from the ballot, so the only two parties to compete were two new pro-President Talon parties. 

The 2020 municipal elections did include one opposition party, the Forces Cauris pour un Bénin Emergent (FCBE), but they only won enough seats to control around 7 mayoral offices, and the new electoral code requires 16 sponsors (mayors or National Assembly delegates) to be qualify as a presidential candidate. So this seemed to be a block-by-block strategy to set up an effectively uncontested presidential election this year. 

In addition, the pro-Talon judiciary has been disqualifying potential opposition candidates for the presidency, including former Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, former presidential candidate Sebastien Ajavon, former finance minister Komi Koutche, and Reckya Madougou.  

Twenty candidates submitted applications to run in next month's election, but only three were approved by the nominally independent election commission: President Talon, former minister Alassane Soumano for the opposition FCBE party and Corentin Kohoue, a dissident opposition figure. 

Joel Aivo, who assembled a multiparty opposition coalition - the Front pour la Restauration de la Démocratie (Front for the Restoration of Democracy) - was among those disqualified. Ganiou Soglo, son of former president Nicephore Soglo, who was shot and wounded soon after filing his papers to compete in the election, was also disqualified. 

Before the 2019 legislative election, FCBE (party of former president Thomas Boni Yayi) was the largest party in the Assembly. After being disqualified from the 2019 legislative election, the party agreed to eject two of its leading members (including Koutche) in order to obtain the certificate of conformity necessary for legal recognition to compete in the 2020 election. This led to a split in the party between the pragmatists (including Soumano) and the radicals (including Boni Yayi and Madougou). The radicals formed a new party, Les Democrates, who after several delays by the authorities were finally recognized in December. Rather than field their own candidate, they joined Aivo's Front. 

In other words, although there is a candidate representing FCBE - the party whose candidate placed first in the first round of the 2016 presidential election (before losing to Talon in the runoff) - today's FCBE is a diminished party, no longer supported by its own former president. Talon has successfully laid the groundwork for an election that appears to be contested, while eliminating any candidates who have a good chance of defeating him at the ballot box. 

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